The A-League returns to action this weekend as Melbourne Victory visit the Hindmarsh Stadium to take on Adelaide United in the 60th Original Rivalry.
This is Melbourne Victory's first league game since the defeat to Brisbane Roar three weeks ago, while the hosts were on the wrong end of a 5-3 mauling against Perth Glory last time out.
Match preview
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Melbourne Victory are coming off a disappointing 2019-20 campaign, where they sacked coach Marco Kurz mid-season, and suffered their lowest-ever finish in the Australian top flight.
Due to several fixture changes, Grant Brebner's men are making just their second A-League appearance this season, with the first coming on January 2, when they lost to Brisbane Roar on home turf.
Debutant Callum McManaman opened his account in the first half with a fiercely struck shot from outside the area, however, Melbourne Victory were left to rue their poor defensive set up and lapses in concentration from set pieces, as they fell to a 3-1 defeat.
On the other hand, Adelaide United failed to build on their impressive win over Melbourne City, as they dropped to seventh in the A-League table after a 5-3 thrashing at the hands of Perth Glory on Wednesday night.
The South Australian-based club were previously unbeaten in their last seven league games, with their last defeat coming last year when they fell to Newcastle Jets.
In the previous meeting between Adelaide United and Melbourne Victory, Victory came out victorious with a hard-earned 2-1 win at the AAMI Park.
However, Adelaide have a clear advantage in the last five meetings, performing excellently with four wins and one loss against the Victorian-based club.
The hosts are unbeaten in their last three home matches, and Grant Brebner's side will aim to end this run and grab their first win of the season.
Adelaide United Australian A-League form: DWL
Melbourne Victory Australian A-League form: L
Team News
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The return of defender Ryan Strain and Javi Lopez is a huge boost for Adelaide United, as both players are expected to feature on Saturday having fully recovered from their injuries.
Club captain Stefan Mauk is the only doubt, and he will be assessed ahead of this fixture as he nurses a calf injury.
Marcos Rojas made a return from an injury last time out, however, after limping off the pitch with a muscle problem, he is now a doubt for the trip to Adelaide United.
Head coach Grant Brebner will make some alterations to the side that took on The Roars last time out, and Elvis Kamsoba could come in for the injured Rojas.
Storm Roux is one match away from 50 A-League appearances for Melbourne Victory, and the New Zealand international could reach that milestone on Saturday.
Robbie Kruse is now available for selection, after returning from his injury layoff this past week.
Adelaide United possible starting lineup:
Delianov; Smith, Jakobsen, Elsey, Marrone; Halloran, D'Arrigo, Caletti, Dukuly; Juric, Konstandopoulos
Melbourne Victory possible starting lineup:
Crocombe; Traore, Ansell, Anderson, Roux; Broxham, Butterfield; Kamsoba, Brimmer, McManaman; Folami
We say: Adelaide United 1-1 Melbourne Victory
Adelaide United and Melbourne Victory were disappointing in their last outing, and both sides will aim to make amends with this fixture. Adelaide are currently on an impressive home run, and they will look to take full advantage, however Melbourne Victory will be no pushover as they search for their first point of the season.
Top betting tip
Joshua Ojele
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Adelaide United win with a probability of 46.98%. A win for Melbourne Victory had a probability of 28.67% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Adelaide United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.3%) and 2-0 (7.63%). The likeliest Melbourne Victory win was 1-2 (7.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.43%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Adelaide United would win this match.
