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Preview: Manchester City vs. Sporting Lisbon - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Champions League clash between Manchester City and Sporting Lisbon, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Having stormed to an emphatic 5-0 win in the first leg, Manchester City welcome Sporting Lisbon to the Etihad Stadium on Wednesday for the second leg of their Champions League last-16 tie.

The Citizens have one foot firmly in the quarter-finals of the competition as they endeavour to keep their hopes of a domestic and continental treble alive.


Match preview

Manchester City's Kevin De Bruyne celebrates scoring their second goal with Bernardo Silva, Jack Grealish and Phil Foden on March 6, 2022© Reuters

Pep Guardiola needs no reminding of how the Champions League has eluded him time and time again during his time with Man City, but his side laid down a marker in the first leg of their last-16 battle against the reigning Portuguese champions.

Bernardo Silva struck twice alongside efforts from Raheem Sterling, Riyad Mahrez and Phil Foden to effectively kill off the tie over the course of 90 minutes, and a similar ruthless streak was on show when bitter rivals Manchester United paid a visit on Sunday.

Indeed, Guardiola's men taught their former noisy neighbours a footballing lesson in a 4-1 romping to re-establish their six-point lead atop the Premier League rankings, with City winning seven of their last eight fixtures in all competitions ahead of the second leg.

Not since the 2016-17 season have the Citizens failed to make it as far as the quarter-finals in the Champions League, and a slice of history is also on the line this week, as City could match the record for six consecutive home wins in the Champions League knockout stages.

Furthermore, each of City's last 10 home games in Europe's elite competition have seen the Premier League champions come up trumps - scoring at least two goals on each occasion - and Sporting are realistically only playing for pride this week.

Sporting Lisbon's Joao Palhinha looks dejected after Manchester City's Bernardo Silva scores their fourth goal on February 15, 2022© Reuters

While there is certainly no shame in coming out second best against Man City, the manner of Sporting's capitulation at home to the English champions was alarming for Ruben Amorim, whose side need to pull off the greatest Champions League comeback in history to advance.

It will come as no surprise to learn that no team has ever come back from a five-goal first-leg deficit to advance in the Champions League, with Barcelona's extraordinary Remontada against Paris Saint-Germain five years ago (0-4 away and 6-1 at home) representing the next best thing.

On a brighter note for Sporting, they have not let their heads drop domestically and come into the second leg having won two and drawn one of their last three Primeira Liga matches, including a 2-0 success over Arouca on Saturday thanks to Islam Slimani's brace.

Sporting have never advanced past the last-16 stage of the Champions League and that is incredibly unlikely to change this week, with the Portuguese side only making it this far once before in 2008-09 and ironically losing the first leg of that tie 5-0 to Bayern Munich. The German giants then went on to complete the job with an even greater margin of victory in the second leg, 7-1.

Man City and Sporting have only ever met at the Etihad once before - with the Citizens marching to a 3-2 success in the last-16 of the Europa League but being dumped out on away goals - and one or two consolation strikes will surely be the only potential joy for the visitors on Wednesday.

Manchester City Champions League form:
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • W

Manchester City form (all competitions):
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • W

Sporting Lisbon Champions League form:
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • L

Sporting Lisbon form (all competitions):
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • W



Team News

Manchester City's Kyle Walker walks off the pitch dejected after he was shown a red card on December 7, 2021© Reuters

Man City right-back Kyle Walker must serve the second of a three-game European ban this week, so Oleksandr Zinchenko can expect to be drafted in on the left-hand side with Joao Cancelo ill.

Guardiola must make do without Ruben Dias for at least four weeks due to a hamstring injury, and Nathan Ake will not shake off a knock in time to feature on Wednesday, while Cole Palmer and Zack Steffen continue to struggle with foot and back injuries respectively.

With the tie all but won, Guardiola may opt to rest Kevin De Bruyne - who would miss the first leg of the quarter-finals if he is booked here - as Ilkay Gundogan returns to man the engine room.

As for Sporting, Amorim has a suspension of his own to work around in the form of Matheus Nunes, so Manuel Ugarte ought to deputise for the visitors this week.

Two big names in Joao Palhinha and Pedro Goncalves are also set to miss out due to injury alongside Daniel Braganca, so Amorin may be forced to pair Ugarte up with 16-year-old Dario Essugo in the middle.

Man City loanee Pedro Porro will likely line up against his parent club on the right-hand side again, while it is a two-man shootout between Slimani and Paulinho to lead the line.

Manchester City possible starting lineup:
Ederson; Stones, Fernandinho, Laporte, Zinchenko; Gundogan, Rodri, Silva; Mahrez, Jesus, Sterling

Sporting Lisbon possible starting lineup:
Adan; Reis, Coates, Inacio; Porro, Ugarte, Essugo, Vinagre; Sarabia, Slimani, Edwards


SM words green background

We say: Manchester City 3-0 Sporting Lisbon

Sporting can afford to play without fear at the Etihad knowing that their efforts will likely be in vain either way, but the absence of two key midfielders spells danger for the beleaguered visitors.

City need not throw caution to the wind given their healthy five-goal advantage, but Guardiola will still expect his side to win with minimal difficulty as quarter-final preparations begin.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 2.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 2.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 54.59%. A win for Sporting Lisbon had a probability of 26.11% and a draw had a probability of 19.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.63%) and 3-2 (5.48%). The likeliest Sporting Lisbon win was 1-2 (5.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (6.85%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Man City vs Sporting Lisbon

Manchester City
84.8%
Draw
6.4%
Sporting Lisbon
8.8%
296
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Ukraine's Oleksandr Zinchenko celebrates after the match on June 29, 2021
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QCopenhagen62228
3Galatasaray61235
4Man Utd61144

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QPSV62319
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QNapoli631210
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Group D

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Group G

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Group H

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4Antwerp61053


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