Madagascar and Congo DR go toe to toe for the second consecutive game in Group J of the World Cup 2022 qualifiers at the Mahamasina Municipal Stadium on Sunday.
Currently rooted to the bottom of the group, the hosts will be desperate to pick up their first win, while the visitors will be seeking to build on Thursday's morale-boosting victory.
Match preview
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Madagascar got their pursuit of a first-ever World Cup appearance underway on September 2, when they fell to a 1-0 defeat versus Benin in their group curtain-raiser.
That was followed by a disappointing 3-2 defeat at the hands of Tanzania five days later, when Feisal Salum grabbed a 52nd-minute winner following a thrilling first half which saw both sides net two goals apiece.
Nicolas Dupuis's side were left empty-handed once again as they were beaten 2-0 by group favourites Congo DR when the sides faced off last Thursday.
In a one-sided affair at the Stade des Martyrs, Chadrac Akolo and Dieumerci Mbokani scored in either half to hand the Central Africans all three points.
Madagascar, who made their first Africa Cup of Nations appearance in 2019, have now failed to taste victory in their last eight games in all competitions, picking up two draws and losing six since claiming a 6-2 win over Niger back in 2019.
While they will be looking to end the dry spell and get their campaign up and running, they face a rejuvenated Congo DR side who have claimed three wins from the last four meetings between the teams.
As for Sunday's visitors, the win last time out was their first in Group J after stumbling to successive draws in their opening two outings.
The Leopards kicked off their quest for a place in Qatar with a disappointing 1-1 draw against an inferior Tanzania side, when Simon Msuva cancelled out Dieumerci Mbokani's opener in the 36th minute to force a share of the spoils.
Congo DR were also involved in a share of the spoils with Benin when the sides locked horns at the Stade de l'Amitie four days later.
Head coach Hector Cuper will hope Thursday's victory can serve as a springboard for a fine run of form as they look to leapfrog Benin, who are currently two points ahead at the top of the table.
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Team News
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Following his unconvincing display last time out, Njiva Rakotoharimalala could be dropped to the Madagascar bench in this one.
With 14 goals in 60 appearances, Paulin Voavy is one goal away from becoming the nation's all-time top scorer and the Ghazl El Mahalla forward will be looking to break that record this weekend.
Meanwhile, on the back of his side's impressive defensive display in the reverse fixture, Cuper may name an unchanged defensive unit, meaning we could see Fabrice N'Sakala, Christian Luyindama, Chancel Mbemba and Dieumerci Amale shielding Joel Kiassumbua in goal.
Mbokani, who is currently Congo DR's all-time leading goalscorer, has netted in each of his last four games for club and county and the Al-Kuwait forward will definitely be one to keep an eye on in this one.
With four goals in his last three games, Yoane Wissa has been on song for English side Brentford and the 25-year-old midfielder could be handed his first competitive debut this weekend.
Madagascar possible starting lineup:
Melvin, Ravelson, Razakanantenaina, Fontaine, Metanire; Abel, Hery, Amada; Voavy, Abdallah, Lapoussin
Congo DR possible starting lineup:
Kiassumbua; N'Sakala, Luyindama, Mbemba, Amale; Moutoussamy, Wissa, Akolo; Mbokani, Bakambu
We say: Madagascar 0-2 Congo DR
DR Congo will head into the weekend in sky-high spirits having secured their first win of the qualifiers when they saw off the hosts last time out.
The Leopards will look to significantly strengthen their qualification chances and will push for maximum points against an out-of-sorts Madagascar side who have struggled to get going in recent outings, while Madagascar will seek to exact revenge on the visitors, and we predict Congo will come away with all three points once again.
Top tip
Joshua Ojele
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Madagascar win with a probability of 37.9%. A win for Congo DR had a probability of 32.1% and a draw had a probability of 30%.
The most likely scoreline for a Madagascar win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.51%) and 2-1 (7.41%). The likeliest Congo DR win was 0-1 (12.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.46%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Madagascar in this match.
