Preview:Mali vs Madagascar - prediction, team news, lineups

With nothing to play for but pride, Mali welcome playoff-chasing Madagascar to Stade du 26 Mars on Sunday evening for the final round of the World Cup qualifying series.

Meanwhile, Barea, despite recent developments regarding the best runners-up placements, still stand a strong chance of finishing in that bracket, though direct qualification remains far-fetched.

Match preview

By Mali’s standards, the 2026 World Cup qualifying campaign has been a disappointment, as they are now out of contention for their first-ever appearance at the global tournament.

Despite a 2-0 victory over Chad on Wednesday, Madagascar’s win against Comoros confirmed that Tom Saintfiet’s men can no longer reach second place, entering this final round four points adrift of Barea in Group I.

Even though Mali were also inconsistent on the road, with that midweek result marking only their second away victory of the campaign after 3-0 success against Comoros (D2, L1), fans of the Eagles might look back and rue their team’s costly lapses on home turf.

Drawing 1-1 against the Central African Republic in Bamako was never a forgivable slip-up, while following that disappointment with a 2-1 loss to Ghana on matchday three at the same venue proved another major setback.

It was a similar story in the reverse fixtures, as the Eagles were held to a goalless draw by CAR in Casablanca before falling to the Black Stars (1-0) once again.

With home and away wins over Comoros and Chad, Ghana and the Central Africans remain the only sides Mali have failed to beat across their two-legged encounters, though the Eagles will look to avoid adding another name to that list as they aim to lift the spirits of a disheartened home crowd on Sunday.

Indeed, the reverse fixture between the Malians and Madagascar ended goalless, but the visitors will be aiming for better this weekend, hoping to build on their fine momentum after winning each of their last three games.

Consecutive victories over CAR (2-0) and Chad (3-1) in September ended a run of dropped points across their previous double-headers, while Wednesday’s 2-1 success over Comoros confirmed that Barea would finish at least second.

Direct qualification seems unrealistic, however, as Corentin Martins’s men, with 19 points (W6, D1, L2), would require extraordinary results on the final day to claim top spot, sitting three points behind Ghana and trailing on goal difference by eight.

Even if the Black Stars surprisingly lose at home to Comoros, they are unlikely to suffer a defeat by a wide margin, and given the daunting task ahead in Bamako, Madagascar might instead be hedging their hopes on a playoff spot.

Recent developments revealed that all runners-up will have both matches against the sixth-placed teams in their groups discounted to balance the numbers following Eritrea’s withdrawal from Group E.

Removing six points from their two-leg meetings with Chad still leaves Madagascar among the top four in that category at the time of writing, though victory on Sunday should all but seal their playoff berth.

Having won three of their last four away games in the qualifiers, Martins’s men have every reason to believe they can get the job done as they continue their quest for a maiden World Cup appearance, perhaps through the indirect route.

Mali World Cup Qualifying - Africa form:

Mali form (all competitions):

Madagascar World Cup Qualifying - Africa form:

Madagascar form (all competitions):

Team News

Mali finished the game against Chad without injuries, and with no players suspended, every available member from that fixture should be in contention here.

As a result, we could see a repeat of the 4-2-3-1 shape used on Wednesday, though Saintfiet might choose to tinker and hand opportunities to other players since there is little at stake.

Mamadou Samassa could retain his spot in goal, while Amadou Haidara and Lassine Sinayoko, who both came off the bench last time out, may start.

However, Kamory Doumbia is almost certain to feature from the outset, having shone throughout the campaign with eight goals, including a brace against Chad — continuing his record of scoring in every game where the Eagles have found the net during these qualifiers.

Madagascar, meanwhile, will be without three key players due to suspension, with right-back Radoniaina Rabemanantsoa missing out after receiving his second booking of the campaign last time out, while defender Ehsan Kari also sits this one out following cautions in consecutive matches against CAR and Comoros.

Forward Warren Caddy is also unavailable for the same reason, having picked up his second yellow card in midweek.

Clement Couturier and El Hadary Raheriniaina should retain their places in midfield and on the right wing respectively after both scored last time out, while Rayan Raveloson will once again be relied upon to work his magic in the middle, having netted five goals so far in this campaign.

Mali possible starting lineup:

Samassa; Dante, Fofana, A Diaby, F Doucoure; Dieng, Haidara; N Dorges, K Doumbia; G Diarra; Sinayoko

Madagascar possible starting lineup:

T Randriamanampisoa, Pelmard, Tremoulet, J P Morgan; Couturier, Ilaimaharitra, Raveloson; Randrianantenaina, Adinany, Raheriniaina

We say: Mali 1-1 Madagascar

Although Madagascar have more at stake, they face a Mali side keen to appease their home crowd after a disappointing campaign, so victory for the visitors may be difficult to secure.

That said, both teams have been lively in attack — the Eagles with 13 goals and Barea with 16 — hence both are expected to find the net in a clash that looks likely to end all square given the circumstances.

For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.