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Australian A-League | Gameweek 23
Apr 2, 2021 at 8.05am UK
Campbelltown Stadium
Perth Glory

2 - 0
Perth Glory

Derbyshire (10', 45' pen.)
Derbyshire (36')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Fornaroli (81')

Preview: Macarthur vs. Perth Glory - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Friday's Australian A-League clash between Macarthur and Perth Glory, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Macarthur and Perth Glory do battle in league action at the Campbelltown Sports Stadium on Friday, with both sides looking to build on wins last time out.

Back-to-back victories have seen the hosts move back up to fourth spot in the Australian A-League table, while Perth Glory recorded a win over Newcastle Jets in their last game, putting an end to a five-game winless run.

Match preview

Ante Milicic, now in charge of Macarthur FC, pictured in 2019© Reuters

Macarthur come into this game on the back of two consecutive A-League victories, somewhat steadying the ship after back-to-back defeats beforehand.

Last time out, Ante Milicic's men recorded a narrow victory away at Wellington Phoenix, as Denis Genreau netted the only goal of the game soon after the hour mark.

That followed another close match for Milicic's side, as they defeated strugglers Western United 2-1 at home.

The visitors took the lead early on through Dylan Pierias, but goals from Matt Derbyshire and Markel Susaeta turned the game on its head and sealed all three points for the Bulls.

Macarthur now sit in fourth spot in the Australian top flight, while the gap between themselves and league leaders Central Coast Mariners has been cut to three points.

However, Milicic will definitely feel that his side can improve going forward, with only four sides in the A-League scoring fewer than the 17 they have netted in 14 games.

They will be confident of turning that round on Friday, though, as the Bulls come up against one of the league's leakiest defences.

Perth Glory manager Richard Garcia pictured in December 2020© Reuters

Perth Glory got back to winning ways last time out, as they defeated Newcastle Jets 2-1.

The Glory led 2-0 after 25 minutes through Ciaran Bramwell and Darryl Lachman, and despite a red card for Jonathan Aspropotamitis and a Roy O'Donovan goal for the visitors, Richard Garcia's side held on to secure all three points.

That put an end to a run of five league games without a win, which saw them drop quickly down the A-League table, but they have since risen back up to seventh spot thanks to that win.

Their struggles this season have come in defence, with only basement side Melbourne Victory conceding more than the 25 goals that Garcia's side have shipped.

However, the Glory have shown themselves to be a strong attacking outfit, with only third-placed Melbourne City topping their tally of 24 goals from 12 league games.

As a result, Garcia will feel that if his side can find a way to tighten up at the back, they should see a rise up the table due to their free-scoring front line.

Macarthur Australian A-League form:
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • W

Perth Glory Australian A-League form:
  • L
  • L
  • D
  • L
  • D
  • W

Team News

Perth Glory players pictured in November 2020© Reuters

Macarthur have managed to keep their squad in good shape this season, with young goalkeeper Nicholas Suman the only absentee through injury.

Milicic could look to keep the same starting team that has won the last two A-League matches, with Aleksandar Jovanovic, Mark Milligan and Aleksandar Susnjar forming a strong back line, protecting the experienced Adam Federici in goal.

At the other end of the pitch, the line will be led by Matt Derbyshire, who has netted eight goals in 14 A-League games this campaign.

Perth Glory could remain without attacker Nicholas D'Agostino, who has missed the last two matches through illness.

Their struggling defence will take another hit for this game too, as centre-back Jonathan Aspropotamitis will serve a suspension after he was shown a red card last time out.

Nineteen-year-old forward Ciaran Bramwell has been handed his first two starts of the season in the last two games in place of Andy Keogh, and he netted his first goal of the season last time out, helping his bid to stay in the starting lineup.

He could join Bruno Fornaroli, who has netted eight goals in 13 games this season.

Macarthur possible starting lineup:
Federici; Jovanovic, Milligan, Susnjar; Franjic, Genreau, Benat, Oar; Susaeta, Derbyshire, Puyo

Perth Glory possible starting lineup:
Reddy; Geria, Lachman, Rawlins, Ota; Stynes, Malik, Kilkenny, Castro; Fornaroli, Bramwell

SM words green background

We say: Macarthur 2-1 Perth Glory

With a side who concede and score plenty of goals coming up against a side who often see few goals in their games, something has to give, and we see the hosts coming away with a narrow win on Friday.

Macarthur have shown themselves to be a solid defensive unit, and should have enough to deal with the attacking threat of the visitors, while Perth Glory's weak defence could allow the Bulls plenty of chances to improve their scoring record, as they go for a third consecutive league win.

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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Macarthur win with a probability of 41.55%. A win for Perth Glory had a probability of 34.92% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Macarthur win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.04%) and 2-0 (5.83%). The likeliest Perth Glory win was 1-2 (7.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.57%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Macarthur would win this match.

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