The weekend's Ligue 1 action gets underway as Lyon travel northwest to Brittany to take on Lorient at the Stade du Moustoir on Friday evening.
The two sides were on different ends of a 1-0 scoreline last weekend, with the hosts having picked up an important win whilst the visitors' recent resurgence faltered.
Match preview
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Lorient's loss at home to Montpellier saw them drop into the relegation playoff spot in 18th, with just goal difference separating them from bottom spot.
Just their fifth win of the season on Sunday, though, has changed the complexion of the incredibly-tight bottom five once again.
Having travelled to Brest for a Breton derby, Les Merlus found themselves with a man advantage after Brendan Chardonnet was dismissed inside half an hour, and eventually made their ensuing pressure pay as Ibrahima Kone finally broke the deadlock in the 73rd minute.
A single goal was enough to secure their second win in four league games and their first top-flight away win since October 17 2020 - a run of 28 games.
It also moved Christophe Pelissier's side up to 16th in the table, but with four teams just two points back, they will need to keep up this momentum or risk dropping all the way to the foot of the table.
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Speaking of momentum, Lyon had built up a fair amount since the turn of the year, winning four and drawing two of their seven games in 2022.
Two weeks ago, they had just beaten podium-side Nice 2-0 and were tied with Rennes and Monaco for a place in the Europa Conference League.
A draw with Lens was followed up by a disappointing 1-0 loss to struggling champions Lille, though, Gabriel Gudmundsson's first Ligue 1 goal proving the difference as Lucas Paqueta's late equaliser was ruled out for a foul.
That result saw Les Gones drop all the way back down to 10th, but the competition in the top half of the table is as tightly contested as the bottom five.
Whilst fourth and fifth-placed Rennes and Strasbourg have opened out a three-point gap to those below them, Lyon are just two points shy of Lens in sixth, and we have seen just how quickly things can change in the French top flight this season.
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Team News
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Jeremy Morel is fit to return to the Lorient side, but will likely remain on the bench against his former club as Pelissier sticks with a winning formula.
Julien Laporte will be suspended for an accumulation of yellow cards, with Moritz Jenz set to take his place in defence, whilst Stephane Diarra and Fabien Lemoine remain doubts.
For the visitors, Jerome Boateng missed training on Wednesday but should be fit if called upon by Peter Bosz.
Jason Denayer and Jeff Reine-Adelaide are also both expected to be in the squad, but Sinaly Diomande continues to struggle and will not be available.
Lorient possible starting lineup:
Dreyer; Mendes, Jenz, Petrot, Le Goff; Innocent, Lauriente, Monconduit, Abergel, Moffi; Soumano
Lyon possible starting lineup:
Lopes; Dubois, Boateng, Lukeba, Emerson; Ndombele, Caqueret; Faivre, Paqueta, Toko Ekambi; Dembele
We say: Lorient 1-2 Lyon
Whilst the hosts come into the match on the back of a positive result and the visitors on a poor one, we are backing Lyon to bounce back and secure all three points in what should be a tight game.
Top tip
James Mackenzie
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lyon win with a probability of 48.36%. A win for Lorient had a probability of 26.12% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lyon win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.33%) and 0-2 (8.82%). The likeliest Lorient win was 1-0 (7.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.13%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lyon would win this match.
