Facing a must-win match if they are to remain as unlikely contenders for a playoff place, Bulgaria visit pointless Lithuania in World Cup Qualifying Group C on Saturday afternoon.
When the teams meet in Vilnius, the visitors will look to draw level on points with second-placed Switzerland by taking all three points, while their hapless hosts are rock-bottom and still to get off the mark.
Match preview
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A respectable four-point haul last month helped Bulgaria revive their improbable ambition to upset the odds and qualify for Qatar 2022, as they moved into contention with a draw and a win.
Considering their first fixture of that double-header was a resilient display versus European champions Italy - which ended in a commendable 1-1 draw at Stadio Artemio Franchi - the Lions have grown in confidence approaching the coming set of qualifiers.
Despite the concession of 29 shots on their goal and over 70% of possession, Yasen Petrov's side were able to secure a second point of the process against the Azzurri and then went on to beat this week's opponents back on home soil, before concluding a successful camp with a friendly win over Georgia.
Therefore, Bulgarian hopes of reaching next year's global gathering through finishing runners-up behind leaders Italy - they trail Switzerland by three points, but the Swiss still have a game in hand - theoretically remain alive.
A once proud football nation, Bulgaria have failed to qualify for the finals since 1998 - four years after famously finishing fourth in the USA - and their last major tournament came as long ago as 2004, when they exited at the group stage of the Euros.
Due to a dearth of talent featuring in the top European leagues, they have steadily slipped down the world rankings since, and currently sit in 70th place. As a result, Petrov - who replaced failed predecessor Georgi Dermendzhiev as coach earlier this year - has a trying task on his hands.
At least, though, the former Levski Sofia manager can point to recent results as a sign of renewal, while his Lithuanian counterpart Valdas Ivanauskas has engendered little response since taking charge of his nation in the spring.
Lithuania, who have never qualified for the finals of any major tournament, last tasted victory versus Kazakhstan in November of last year and the Rinktine's most recent setback in September was their 10th consecutive loss.
Beaten 4-1 on home soil by Northern Ireland at the start of last month's three qualifiers, they then proceeded to push Bulgaria close in Sofia, but ultimately lost due to an 82nd-minute goal by Ivalyo Chochev. Unsurprisingly, a crushing defeat to Italy last time out then followed, as their hosts went four goals up before the half-hour mark, but then eased off to record a 5-0 win.
Ivanauskas, then, will see any result but defeat on Saturday as a significant improvement - particularly for a team which has conceded 13 times in qualifying so far; scoring just once themselves.
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Team News
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Bulgaria boss Yasen Petrov has gradually phased out some older fixtures in the squad during recent months, as former stalwarts Petar Zanev and Cicinho have been excluded once again.
Goalkeeper Nikolay Mihailov must serve a suspension after his sending off as a substitute the last time these two sides met, so teenage stopper Svetoslav Vutsov has been brought in for back-up to likely starter Martin Lukov.
The Lions' XI will be captained by defensive midfielder Georgi Kostadinov, while Ludogorets striker Kiril Despodov is set to start in attack.
Having switched from a three-man defence to four at the back in recent games, Petrov could opt for an attacking 4-2-3-1 formation against relatively lightweight opposition.
The hosts, meanwhile, should have their most-capped player, Saulius Mikoliunas back in defence following a tendon injury which kept him out of action last month.
The former Hearts right-back joins 36-year-old goalkeeper Ernestas Setkus among the senior citizens of the squad, while young striker Edgaras Dubickas is expected to lead the line up front, as he did in Sofia - though the Piacenza prospect has yet to score for his country.
Lithuania are likely to match up their visitors' formation at the LFF Stadium, with a four-man rearguard being protected by two screening midfielders.
Lithuania possible starting lineup:
Setkus; Mikoliunas, Satkus, Utkus, Vaitkunas; Megelaitis, Verbickas; Kazlauskas, Novikovas, Cernych; Dubickas
Bulgaria possible starting lineup:
Mihaylov; A. Hristov, Antov, P. Hristov, Nedyalkov; Malinov, Kostadinov; I. Iliev, Despodov, Delev; A. Iliev
We say: Lithuania 1-2 Bulgaria
Bulgaria will complete the double over their Baltic counterparts with a win in Vilnius this weekend; keeping them in with a faint hope of progressing to the playoffs.
A sprinkling of young talent has rejuvenated a stale squad in recent months, so the away side can take the initiative and score at least twice against often obdurate opponents.
Top tip
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bulgaria win with a probability of 39.5%. A win for Lithuania had a probability of 32.98% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bulgaria win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.27%) and 0-2 (7.27%). The likeliest Lithuania win was 1-0 (10.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood.
