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Lille
Ligue 1 | Gameweek 25
Feb 14, 2021 at 4pm UK
Stade Lille-Metropole
Brest logo

Lille
0 - 0
Brest


Celik (44'), Bamba (75')
FT

Belkebla (7')

Preview: Lille vs. Brest - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Lille and Brest, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Ligue 1 leaders Lille will be aiming to win their eighth game in a row across all competitions when they welcome a resurgent Brest to the Stade Pierre-Mauroy for Sunday's top-flight encounter.

The hosts overcame Dijon 1-0 in their opening Coupe de France match of the season in midweek, while Brest also advanced to the next round after beating Rodez.


Match preview

Lille coach Christophe Galtier pictured on January 24, 2021© Reuters

If there was ever a time for Lille to cement their position atop the Ligue 1 standings, it is now, as Christophe Galtier's men mark their return to the continental stage on Thursday for their Europa League last-32 first leg against Ajax.

Les Dogues are seemingly unstoppable when domestic commitments are their sole concern, but Galtier will remember his side's flailing form when they had to juggle their Europa League group stage alongside league action, so they simply cannot afford to slip up this weekend before taking on Ajax twice later this month.

It is difficult to see Lille's remarkable winning streak ending on Sunday, though, as Galtier's men have won seven in a row across all competitions - keeping clean sheets in six of those matches - and a two-point gap currently separates Lille from second-placed Lyon, who could temporarily rise to the summit if they beat Montpellier HSC on Saturday.

However, Les Dogues were not as dominant as Galtier would have expected against Dijon - even with several fringe players making the starting lineup - as a strike from 19-year-old Aguibou Camara was all that separated the two teams in Wednesday's Coupe de France clash.

Galtier may already have one eye on next week's battle with Ajax on the European stage, but his resilient charges should simply focus on the task at hand against Brest as they aim to win seven in a row in Ligue 1 for the first time since the 2009-10 season.

Brest coach Olivier Dall'Oglio pictured in January 2020© Reuters

Brest supporters would be making a fatal mistake if they were to read too much into their side's winning run, as inconsistency has been the theme for Olivier Dall'Oglio's men this season.

The 12th-placed Pirates had suffered four defeats from five in the month of January, but they have at least started February in stronger form with two wins and a draw from their last three matches - including a hard-earned 2-1 success over Bordeaux last weekend courtesy of goals from Steve Mounie and Romain Faivre.

Mounie followed up his goal against Bordeaux with his seventh goal of the season against Rodez in the Coupe de France, but Brest could only scrape a 2-1 victory over the Ligue 2 outfit to progress to the next stage, and their away form does not make for pleasant reading ahead of their trip to Lille.

Indeed, Les Pirates are at risk of going seven games without a win on the road after losing four and drawing two of their last six, and only the bottom two sides in Nimes and Dijon (both 24) have shipped more goals on unfamiliar territory than Brest (23) this term.

History suggests that there will definitely be a winner and a loser in this tie at the Stade Pierre-Mauroy, as Lille and Brest have not played out a draw in Ligue 1 since 1987, and Dall'Oglio's side did manage to edge a five-goal thriller 3-2 in the reverse fixture.

Lille Ligue 1 form: WWWWWW
Lille form (all competitions): WWWWWW

Brest Ligue 1 form: LLLLDW
Brest form (all competitions): LLLDWW


Team News

Lille forward Yusuf Yazici celebrates scoring in October 2020© Reuters

Lille's two Turkish forwards in Burak Yilmaz and Yusuf Yazici are nursing calf and foot problems respectively, but Jonathan David has now found his goalscoring touch with five goals from his last five Ligue 1 outings.

Galtier has no other concerns beside his two prolific forwards, and even with Ajax to come in midweek, the Dogues manager should revert to his strongest XI regardless.

Jose Fonte and Zeki Celik should return to the backline, while Timothy Weah and Jonathan Ikone will battle it out to start alongside David up top.

Brest shot-stopper Gautier Larsonneur has been demoted to the bench in recent weeks, and he is expected to stay there following Sebastien Cibois's emergence in between the sticks.

Mounie is pushing for a return to the first XI in the league after two promising showings in the past week, while further changes from the Coupe de France win should see Romain Perraud, Julien Faussurier, Paul Lasne and Haris Belkebla all return.

Lille possible starting lineup:
Maignan; Celik, Fonte, Botman, Reinildo; Ikone, Andre, Sanches, Bamba; David, Weah

Brest possible starting lineup:
Cibois; Faussurier, Herelle, Chardonnet, Perraud; Lasne, Lucas, Belkebla; Honorat, Cardona, Faivre


SM words green background

We say: Lille 2-1 Brest

Brest need no helping hand when it comes to finding the back of the net, but stopping the goals from going in at the other end has been their downfall all season. The upcoming return of the Europa League may be playing on Lille's minds a little bit, but the league leaders should still be too strong for a topsy-turvy Brest, so we can only predict a home win in this match.


Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data



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Written by
Ben Knapton

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 66.2%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for Brest had a probability of 13.27%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 1-0 with a probability of 13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.82%) and 2-1 (9.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.71%), while for a Brest win it was 0-1 (4.93%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Lille vs Brest

Lille
91.8%
Draw
2.7%
Brest
5.5%
73
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Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Paris Saint-GermainPSG14104037112634
2Marseille1492331171429
3MonacoMonaco1492324121229
4Lille1475224141026
5Lyon147432617925
6Nice146532617923
7Lens146531712523
8Auxerre146262121020
9Reims145452018219
10Toulouse145361516-118
11Brest145182026-616
12Rennes144281820-214
13NantesNantes143561620-414
14StrasbourgStrasbourg143562227-514
15Angers143471424-1013
16Saint-EtienneSt Etienne144191132-2113
17Le HavreLe Havre1440101126-1512
18Montpellier HSCMontpellier1422101336-238


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