Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Metz win with a probability of 39.61%. A win for Paris FC had a probability of 32.71% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Metz win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.25%) and 2-0 (7.35%). The likeliest Paris FC win was 0-1 (10.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.04%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Metz would win this match.