Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pumas win with a probability of 45.87%. A win for Queretaro had a probability of 27.73% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pumas win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.03%) and 2-0 (8.53%). The likeliest Queretaro win was 0-1 (8.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.52%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Pumas would win this match.