Fresh off the back of suffering their first Primeira Liga defeat of the season, Sporting Lisbon turn to the Taca de Portugal where they square off against Leca on Tuesday for a place in the semi-finals.
The hosts, who currently play in the fourth tier of Portuguese football, have enjoyed a thrilling cup run, seeing off two top-flight sides and will look to keep the juggernaut rolling and pull off one of their biggest upsets of the competition.
Match preview
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Leca will be delighted with their performance so far this season as they currently sit at the summit of the Campeonato de Portugal Group C table with 28 points from 11 outings.
The fourth-tier outfit have carried on their fine league form into the Taca de Portugal, where they have enjoyed a stunning campaign, scoring eight goals and keeping three clean sheets to reach the quarter-finals.
After securing a hard-earned 1-0 win over Lusitania Lourosa in their opening game back in September, Leca made light work of Pombal in the next round, claiming an emphatic 4-0 win, before seeing off Primeira Liga sides Arouca and Gil Vicente respectively in their subsequent two games.
Luis Pinto's side then needed penalties to edge out Paredes in the round of 16 after playing out an uneventful goalless draw in 120 minutes three weeks back, before opening the New Year with a 1-0 league win over Alvarenga courtesy of Nuno Barbosa's first-half strike last time out.
Leca head into Tuesday's game on an eight-game winning streak and unbeaten in each of their last 11 outings, and while they will look to maintain their impressive cup run, standing in their way is a rampant Sporting Lisbon side who are the reigning Portuguese champions.
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Sporting Lisbon, on the other hand, were handed their first Primeira Liga defeat of the season last time out when they were stunned 3-2 by relegation contenders Santa Clara at the Estadio de Sao Miguel.
After Joao Palhinha and Jean Patric scored for either side to end the first half level, Paris Saint-Germain loanee Pablo Sarabia put the visitors ahead in the 50th minute, but Santa Clara responded immediately through Lincoln before Ricardinho struck in the 78th minute to complete a comeback victory.
Prior to that, Ruben Amorim's side were on a 14-game unbeaten run in the league, claiming 12 wins and two draws, while winning each of their last five games across all competitions since a 4-2 defeat against Ajax in the Champions League on December 7.
Sporting Lisbon now turn their attention to the Taca de Portugal, where they opened their campaign with a comprehensive 4-0 win over Os Belenenses, before securing 2-1 victories over Varzim and Casa Pia respectively in their subsequent two games.
The Leoes will now look to immediately return to winning ways and keep alive their dreams of ending their two-year wait for the cup title after their 2019 triumph, when they saw off Porto on penalties in the final.
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Team News
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Portuguese forward Nuno Barbosa has been instrumental in Leca's cup run, netting three goals in six games and we expect the 21-year-old to lead the attack, alongside Nani and Miguel Lopes.
In defence, we should see a back four of Alvaro Milhazes, Rui Bruno, Daniel Materazzi and Joel Mateus, shielding Gustavo Galil between the sticks.
Meanwhile, Sporting Lisbon will once again be without 23-year-old forward Jovane Cabral, who has been sidelined since sustaining a muscle problem in November's Taca de Portugal game against Varzim.
Geny Catamo and Goncalo Inacio are also out of contention for the Portuguese champions after the duo recently tested positive for COVID-19.
Following a two-month injury spell, Ruben Vinagre returned to the fold as an unused substitute in the game against Santa Clara last time out and the Portuguese defender could be handed his first appearance since early November.
Leca possible starting lineup:
Galil; Milhazes, Bruno, Materazzi,Joel Mateu; Neves, Martins, Ramalho; Nani, Lopes, Barbosa
Sporting Lisbon possible starting lineup:
Virginia; Esteves, Feddal, Reis; Vinagre, Braganca, Santos, Nunes; Ugarte, Sarabia; Tomas
We say: Leca 0-4 Sporting Lisbon
Leca have thrilled the fans with their incredible cup campaign and will be delighted to be at this stage of the competition. However, we predict their run will come to an end on Tuesday as they take on a significantly stronger Sporting Lisbon side, boasting more experience and a clearly superior crop of players in their arsenal.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 75.25%. A draw had a probability of 16.2% and a win for Leca had a probability of 8.57%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-2 with a probability of 13.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (11.89%) and 0-3 (10.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.67%), while for a Leca win it was 1-0 (3.29%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 0-4 win for Sporting Lisbon in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Sporting Lisbon.
