Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dundee United win with a probability of 39.03%. A win for Motherwell had a probability of 35.11% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Dundee United win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.51%) and 0-2 (6.54%). The likeliest Motherwell win was 1-0 (8.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.27%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood.