Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sassuolo win with a probability of 43.34%. A win for Modena had a probability of 30.03% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sassuolo win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.82%) and 0-2 (7.91%). The likeliest Modena win was 1-0 (9.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.64%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sassuolo would win this match.