Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lugano win with a probability of 40.98%. A win for Besiktas had a probability of 34.82% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lugano win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.77%) and 2-0 (6.12%). The likeliest Besiktas win was 1-2 (7.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.14%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood.