Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Basel win with a probability of 44.14%. A win for Lausanne Sport had a probability of 31.79% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Basel win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.19%) and 0-2 (6.71%). The likeliest Lausanne Sport win was 2-1 (7.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.11%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood.