Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitesse win with a probability of 47.04%. A win for Jong Ajax had a probability of 30.49% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitesse win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.68%) and 0-2 (6.22%). The likeliest Jong Ajax win was 2-1 (7.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.79%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood.