Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitesse win with a probability of 47.04%. A win for Jong Ajax had a probability of 30.49% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Vitesse win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.68%) and 0-2 (6.22%). The likeliest Jong Ajax win was 2-1 (7.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.79%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood.

Result
Jong Ajax	Draw	Vitesse
30.49% ( -0.25)	22.47% ( 0.1)	47.04% ( 0.14)

Both teams to score 64.95% (

-0.53)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

64.6% (

-0.63)

35.4% (

0.63)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

42.56% (

-0.7)

57.44% (

0.7)

Jong Ajax Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.9% (

-0.45)

23.1% (

0.45)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.05% (

-0.67)

56.95% (

0.67)

Vitesse Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.46% (

-0.19)

15.54% (

0.19)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

55.53% (

-0.35)

44.47% (

0.35)

Score Analysis

Jong Ajax 30.49%

Vitesse 47.04%

Draw 22.47%

Jong Ajax	Draw	Vitesse
2-1 @ 7.18% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 5.26% ( 0.1) 2-0 @ 3.85% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 3.51% ( -0.05) 3-2 @ 3.26% ( -0.07) 3-0 @ 1.88% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.28% ( -0.04) 4-2 @ 1.2% ( -0.04) Other @ 3.07% Total : 30.49%	1-1 @ 9.79% ( 0.12) 2-2 @ 6.68% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 3.59% ( 0.11) 3-3 @ 2.03% ( -0.06) Other @ 0.39% Total : 22.47%	1-2 @ 9.12% ( 0.05) 0-1 @ 6.68% ( 0.17) 0-2 @ 6.22% ( 0.12) 1-3 @ 5.66% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 4.15% ( -0.06) 0-3 @ 3.86% ( 0.05) 1-4 @ 2.63% ( -0.02) 2-4 @ 1.93% ( -0.04) 0-4 @ 1.8% ( 0.01) 1-5 @ 0.98% ( -0.01) 3-4 @ 0.94% ( -0.03) Other @ 3.07% Total : 47.04%