Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beitar Jerusalem win with a probability of 51.7%. A draw had a probability of 24.9% and a win for Ashdod had a probability of 23.37%.
The most likely scoreline for a Beitar Jerusalem win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.59%) and 2-1 (9.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.85%), while for an Ashdod win it was 0-1 (7.37%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Beitar Jerusalem would win this match.