Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bari win with a probability of 41.56%. A win for Cesena had a probability of 30.2% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bari win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.27%) and 2-0 (8.05%). The likeliest Cesena win was 0-1 (10.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.14%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Bari in this match.