Arsenal vs Manchester City - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 53.73%. A win for Manchester City had a probability of 24.45% and a draw had a probability of 21.8%.

The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.7%) and 2-0 (7.59%). The likeliest Manchester City win was 1-2 (6.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.78%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Arsenal would win this match.