Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 53.97%. A win for Club Brugge had a probability of 25.05% and a draw had a probability of 21%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.77%) and 3-1 (6.56%). The likeliest Club Brugge win was 1-2 (6.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.92%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.