Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 80.01%. A draw had a probability of 13.2% and a win for Sparta Prague had a probability of 6.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.29%) and 1-0 (9.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.26%), while for a Sparta Prague win it was 0-1 (2.33%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.