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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 56.08%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Barrow had a probability of 19.92%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.68%) and 2-1 (9.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.38%), while for a Barrow win it was 0-1 (6.72%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Newport County would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Newport County | Draw | Barrow |
| 56.08% | 24% | 19.92% |
| Both teams to score 48.57% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.13% | 51.87% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.38% | 73.62% |
| Newport County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.65% | 18.35% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.54% | 49.46% |
| Barrow Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.48% | 40.52% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.87% | 77.13% |
| Score Analysis |
| Newport County | Draw | Barrow |
| 1-0 @ 12.6% 2-0 @ 10.68% 2-1 @ 9.66% 3-0 @ 6.04% 3-1 @ 5.46% 4-0 @ 2.56% 3-2 @ 2.47% 4-1 @ 2.31% 4-2 @ 1.05% Other @ 3.24% Total : 56.06% | 1-1 @ 11.38% 0-0 @ 7.44% 2-2 @ 4.36% Other @ 0.82% Total : 23.99% | 0-1 @ 6.72% 1-2 @ 5.14% 0-2 @ 3.03% 1-3 @ 1.55% 2-3 @ 1.31% 0-3 @ 0.91% Other @ 1.25% Total : 19.92% |