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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crewe Alexandra win with a probability of 49.83%. A win for Sutton United had a probability of 26.61% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Crewe Alexandra win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.05%) and 2-0 (7.9%). The likeliest Sutton United win was 1-2 (6.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.98%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Crewe Alexandra would win this match.
Result | ||
Crewe Alexandra | Draw | Sutton United |
49.83% ( -0.2) | 23.56% ( 0.05) | 26.61% ( 0.15) |
Both teams to score 58.03% ( -0.04) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
56.76% ( -0.11) | 43.24% ( 0.11) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
34.36% ( -0.11) | 65.64% ( 0.11) |
Crewe Alexandra Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
82.53% ( -0.12) | 17.47% ( 0.12) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
52.05% ( -0.2) | 47.95% ( 0.2) |
Sutton United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.31% ( 0.05) | 29.69% ( -0.05) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
34.25% ( 0.06) | 65.75% ( -0.06) |
Score Analysis |
Crewe Alexandra | Draw | Sutton United |
2-1 @ 9.59% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 9.05% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 7.9% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 5.58% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 4.59% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 3.39% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 2.43% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 2% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 1.48% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.83% Total : 49.83% | 1-1 @ 10.98% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 5.82% ( 0) 0-0 @ 5.19% ( 0.03) 3-3 @ 1.37% ( -0) Other @ 0.2% Total : 23.55% | 1-2 @ 6.67% ( 0.03) 0-1 @ 6.3% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 3.82% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 2.7% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 2.36% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.55% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.21% Total : 26.61% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Stockport CountyStockport | 45 | 27 | 11 | 7 | 95 | 46 | 49 | 92 |
P | Mansfield TownMansfield | 45 | 24 | 13 | 8 | 89 | 46 | 43 | 85 |
P | Wrexham | 45 | 25 | 10 | 10 | 87 | 51 | 36 | 85 |
4 | MK Dons | 45 | 23 | 8 | 14 | 79 | 64 | 15 | 77 |
5 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 45 | 21 | 7 | 17 | 71 | 66 | 5 | 70 |
6 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 45 | 19 | 13 | 13 | 68 | 64 | 4 | 70 |
7 | BarrowBarrow | 45 | 18 | 14 | 13 | 61 | 55 | 6 | 68 |
8 | Crawley TownCrawley | 45 | 20 | 7 | 18 | 71 | 67 | 4 | 67 |
9 | Bradford CityBradford | 45 | 18 | 12 | 15 | 57 | 58 | -1 | 66 |
10 | Walsall | 45 | 18 | 11 | 16 | 68 | 68 | 0 | 65 |
11 | Gillingham | 45 | 18 | 9 | 18 | 44 | 55 | -11 | 63 |
12 | AFC Wimbledon | 45 | 16 | 14 | 15 | 59 | 50 | 9 | 62 |
13 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 45 | 17 | 11 | 17 | 58 | 67 | -9 | 62 |
14 | Notts County | 45 | 18 | 7 | 20 | 89 | 85 | 4 | 61 |
15 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 45 | 17 | 6 | 22 | 66 | 66 | 0 | 57 |
16 | Morecambe | 45 | 17 | 9 | 19 | 64 | 78 | -14 | 57 |
17 | Newport CountyNewport | 45 | 16 | 7 | 22 | 61 | 72 | -11 | 55 |
18 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 45 | 15 | 9 | 21 | 59 | 70 | -11 | 54 |
19 | Swindon TownSwindon | 45 | 14 | 11 | 20 | 74 | 80 | -6 | 53 |
20 | Salford City | 45 | 13 | 11 | 21 | 64 | 80 | -16 | 50 |
21 | Grimsby Town | 45 | 11 | 16 | 18 | 57 | 72 | -15 | 49 |
22 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 45 | 11 | 11 | 23 | 58 | 79 | -21 | 44 |
23 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 45 | 9 | 14 | 22 | 55 | 80 | -25 | 41 |
R | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 45 | 10 | 9 | 26 | 43 | 78 | -35 | 39 |
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