Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chesterfield win with a probability of 42.88%. A win for Notts County had a probability of 32.49% and a draw had a probability of 24.63%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chesterfield win was 2-1 with a probability of 9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.67%) and 2-0 (6.77%). The likeliest Notts County win was 1-2 (7.66%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.52%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood.