Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barnet win with a probability of 38.05%. A win for Chesterfield had a probability of 36.81% and a draw had a probability of 25.14%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barnet win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.44%) and 0-2 (6.03%). The likeliest Chesterfield win was 1-0 (8.29%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.82%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood.