Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AFC Wimbledon win with a probability of 40.37%. A win for Northampton Town had a probability of 33.15% and a draw had a probability of 26.47%.
The most likely scoreline for a AFC Wimbledon win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.57%) and 0-2 (7.1%). The likeliest Northampton Town win was 1-0 (9.25%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.59%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood.