Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Oxford United win with a probability of 51.96%. A win for Fleetwood Town had a probability of 24.52% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Oxford United win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.72%) and 0-2 (8.58%). The likeliest Fleetwood Town win was 1-0 (6.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.07%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Oxford United would win this match.