Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derry City win with a probability of 63.6%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for Drogheda United had a probability of 14.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derry City win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.85%) and 2-1 (9.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.31%), while for a Drogheda United win it was 0-1 (5.61%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood.