Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bohemians win with a probability of 43.2%. A win for Dundalk had a probability of 29.54% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bohemians win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.66%) and 2-0 (8.15%). The likeliest Dundalk win was 0-1 (9.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.86%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bohemians would win this match.