Independiente del Valle can book their place in the quarter-finals of the Copa Sudamericana if they can avoid defeat against Lanus in the second leg of that knockout stage encounter at Estadio Ciudad de Lanus-Nestor Diaa Perez on Thursday.
Last week, an injury-time goal in the first and second half gave the Ecuadorians a 2-1 edge heading into this encounter versus Granate, who are seeking their first trip to the last eight of this competition since 2020.
Match preview
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After falling out in the group stage a year ago, Lanus are back in the knockout portion of the Sudamericana, as they aim to keep their tournament alive on Thursday.
Half-time adjustments have played a big part in their success, as the Argentines have reacted well to slow starts, scoring seven of their eight goals at this tournament in the second 45 minutes.
They have tallied first in three of their last four home matches in all competitions, though Lanus have failed to win on two of those occasions, including in their previous home game at this tournament, when they conceded twice to Wanderers in the final few minutes, losing 2-1.
The 2013 champions of this competition do not need to look far for proof that reversing their current deficit is within the realm of possibilities.
Granate were in this exact predicament in 2020, dropping a 2-1 decision to Bolivar but managing a 6-2 victory in the return leg at home, advancing to the last eight and eventually making it to the semi-finals.
Under manager Jorge Almiron, this team enjoy their share of possession and are capable of putting together some solid build-up play, though their quality has been missing throughout the year, scoring the second-fewest goals (four) to this point of the second phase in the Argentine Primera Division.
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After a solid beginning to the 2022 Copa Libertadores group stage campaign, where they went unbeaten in their opening three fixtures, a lack of intensity in their final three encounters left the club from Sangolqui outside a top-two position.
Despite the disappointment of missing the last 16 of that competition for a second successive campaign, the Sudamericana will provide manager Martin Anselmi and his team with an opportunity for redemption.
In the opening leg at home, they showed their superiority, firing seven efforts on target while holding their opponents to only 22% possession.
Historically Independiente del Valle have not fared well away from home against clubs from Argentina at this tournament, losing two of their three encounters against them.
Los Negriazules have not lost a game in which they have tallied first since falling 3-1 to Universidad Catolica in mid-April, while failing to concede a goal in five of their previous six fixtures in all competitions when firing home the opener.
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Team News
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Jose Sand has been the primary contributor for Lanus at this competition, with three goals in the group stage, while Tomas Belmonte tallied his first in the opening leg of this tie last Thursday.
Goalkeeper Fernando Monetti has three clean sheets so far in the tournament, while numerous players have chipped in with assists, including Angel Gonzalez (two), Lautaro Acosta, current Celtic left-back Alexandro Bernabei, Nicolas Pasquini, Braian Aguirre and Jose Manuel Lopez, who now plays with Palmeiras.
In their 3-0 defeat to Union over the weekend, Lanus made wholesale changes to their line, with Yonathan Cabral and Maxi Gonzalez being the only players who kept their place in the starting 11.
Goals from Richard Schunke and Jaime Ayovi propelled the Ecuadorians to victory in the opening fixture of this tie, while Junior Sornoza and Danny Cabezas collected assists.
Sornoza was their primary weapon in the group stage of the Libertadores, finding the back of the net five times, while Fernando Gaibor and Jhoanner Chavez both tallied in a 3-0 victory over America Mineiro in the last group stage game for them at that competition.
There were three changes made to the starting 11 of Independiente del Valle last week, with Lautaro Diaz, Lorenzo Faravelli and Sornoza replacing Cristian Pellerano, Pedro Perlaza and Danny Cabezas.
Lanus possible starting lineup:
Monetti; Pasquini, Braghieri, Cabral, Perez; M. Gonzalez; Acosta, Loaiza, Belmonte, Varaldo; Sand
Independiente del Valle possible starting lineup:
Ramirez; Carabajal, Schunke, Segovia; Cabezas, Faravelli, Gaibor, Ayovi; Angulo, Sornoza; Bauman
We say: Lanus 1-1 Independiente del Valle
Lanus have not been able to settle into a consistent rhythm throughout the year, and their opening leg of this encounter showed their vulnerabilities.
While the team from Ecuador never seem to make it easy on themselves, we expect them to do enough to earn a result and advance to the next round.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Joel Lefevre
