Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Twente win with a probability of 47.03%. A win for Katwijk had a probability of 30.55% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Twente win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.61%) and 0-2 (6.18%). The likeliest Katwijk win was 2-1 (7.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.74%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that FC Twente would win this match.