The lowest-ranked side left in this year's FA Cup, Kidderminster Harriers, host Championship strugglers Reading at the Aggborough Stadium in the third round on Saturday afternoon.
Kiddy are currently fifth in the National League North, 78 places below Reading who are 21st in the Championship.
Match preview
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Due to multiple fixtures being postponed, this will be Kidderminster's first game since December 18 when they lost 4-1 to Boston United in the FA Trophy.
However, that could give a false impression of Kiddy's campaign to date; an eight-match winning run came to an end earlier in December and they have won their last five successive matches on home turf – with clean sheets in their last four.
Russell Penn's team are playoff contenders in the National League North and have both the second-best attack and second-best defence in the division in 2021-22.
The Worcestershire side entered this season's FA Cup in the second qualifying round in September and have beaten Sporting Khalsa, Ware, Bedfont Sports, Grimsby Town and Halifax Town to get to this stage.
This is Kidderminster's first appearance in round three since 2014, which was also the last time that they reached the fourth round.
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It has been a season of woe for Reading, with a transfer embargo, injury crisis and six-point deduction all inflicted on the Royals; the last thing that they need is to be on the wrong end of a cup upset.
Veljko Paunovic's side have won just two of their last 11 matches, have not kept a clean sheet since mid-October and sit only three points above the relegation zone in the Championship.
On Monday, they drew 2-2 at home against Derby County, despite leading 2-0 up until the 86th minute through a Junior Hoilett double.
The Royals, who reached the semi-finals of the FA Cup in 1927 and 2015, have been knocked out in the third round in two of the last three seasons.
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Team News
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Defender Cliff Moyo is Kidderminster's only known absentee, as the one-cap Zimbabwe international is approaching the final months of recovery from his long-term injury.
Since Kiddy were last in action, Marcus Dinanga has joined on loan, but will not be able to make his debut as he appeared for Altrincham in the competition earlier this season.
Top scorer Ashley Hemmings netted in the first round and second round earlier in the season and will be hoping to be the hero again.
Veljko Paunovic is expected to heavily rotate at Aggborough and is likely to name a side largely made up of Under-23 players.
There could also be opportunities for Brazilian duo Rafael Cabral – who lost his place as first choice goalkeeper earlier in the campaign - and Felipe Araruna, who has recently returned from over a year on the sidelines.
The game could also be a good chance to allow recent absentees Liam Moore, Danny Drinkwater and Dejan Tetek to get back up to speed.
Kidderminster Harriers possible starting lineup:
Simpson; Penny, Lowe, Bajrami, Richards; Montrose, Carrington; Hemmings, Austin, Sterling-James; Morgan-Smith
Reading possible starting lineup:
Rafael; Abrefa, Stickland, Holmes, Bristow; Araruna, Osorio; Camara, Leavy, Ehibhatiomhan; Clarke
We say: Kidderminster Harriers 0-2 Reading
Given Reading's recent struggles and the high chance of Veljko Paunovic fielding a young side, an upset is not off the cards here. The non-league outfit will still be big underdogs whatever team the Royals put out though and we think a famous victory for Kiddy will not quite happen.
Top tip
Olly Allen
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Reading win with a probability of 40.28%. A win for Kidderminster Harriers had a probability of 34.77% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Reading win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.56%) and 0-2 (6.38%). The likeliest Kidderminster Harriers win was 2-1 (8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.7%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 8% likelihood.
