Preview: Kenya vs Gambia - prediction, team news, lineups

The Moi International Sports Centre in Nairobi will stage an intriguing Group F encounter on Friday as Kenya welcome Gambia in the seventh round of CAF World Cup qualifying.

With both sides sitting outside the top two, their qualification hopes are slim, but pride, momentum, and a chance to keep mathematical chances alive remain at stake.

Match preview

Kenya’s World Cup qualifying campaign has been one of near misses and frustration. The Harambee Stars have just one win to their name, a comfortable triumph over Seychelles, but have been held to three draws and lost twice in six outings.

That run leaves them in fourth place, six points off the top two, and another setback here could effectively end their hopes of progressing to the mundial.

Benni McCarthy’s side were narrowly beaten 2-1 by Gabon last time out, extending their winless streak in the qualifiers to four matches (D3 L1).

While they have proved hard to beat in friendlies and other competitions, going undefeated in eight of their last nine, the lack of cutting edge in decisive qualifiers has undermined their progress.

Much of Kenya’s attacking burden rests on captain Michael Olunga, who has delivered consistently for both club and country.

With four goals in this campaign and two more in recent outings for Al Arabi in Qatar, the towering striker remains the focal point of the Harambee Stars’ attack.

The Scorpions, on the other hand, sit one place and two points behind Kenya, with just one win and one draw from six matches.

Their faint hopes of progression hinge not only on winning here but also on a favourable set of results elsewhere. Anything short of victory in Nairobi will end their journey.

Despite their struggles, Gambia have shown flashes of attacking promise. In March’s reverse fixture, they played out a thrilling 3-3 draw with Kenya, where Musa Barrow netted twice and Brighton & Hove Albion winger Yankuba Minteh also found the scoresheet.

However, their away record makes for grim reading: five consecutive losses on the road in World Cup qualifying underline their struggles outside Banjul.

Defensive frailties have compounded those issues, as the Scorpions have conceded in each of their last 10 WCQ matches.

Kenya World Cup Qualifying - Africa form:

L W D D D L

Kenya form (all competitions):

W W D W W L

Gambia World Cup Qualifying - Africa form:

L L W L D L

Gambia form (all competitions):

W D L L W D

Team News

Kenya are expected to tweak their lineup after defensive lapses in the last outing. Johnstone Omurwa could start at centre-back, while Tobias Otieno may provide stability in midfield.

Duke Abuya and Richard Bajaber are pushing for inclusion after lively cameos last time out. Olunga, however, remains undroppable, and the Harambee Stars will once again build their attack around him.

For Gambia, Musa Barrow and Yankuba Minteh are nailed-on starters in attack, with Alieu Fadera and Muhammed Badamosi offering further options.

Omar Colley should captain the side from the back, while Baboucarr Gaye is likely to keep his place between the posts. Saintfiet may also opt for a more compact midfield with Alasana Manneh and Ebou Adams expected to start.

Kenya possible starting lineup:

Otieno; Onyango, Omurwa, Anyembe, Ouma; Akumu, Abuya; Bajaber, Wilson, Avire; Olunga

Gambia possible XI:

Jarju; Njie, Sinyan, Colley; Ceesay, Bajo, Barry, Fadera; Minteh, Sowe, Barrow

We say: Kenya 2-1 Gambia

Both sides enter under pressure, but with Gambia’s leaky away record and Kenya enjoying home advantage in Nairobi, the Harambee Stars may just edge this one.

Olunga’s scoring form gives them an extra dimension, and while Barrow and Minteh will test their defence, Firat’s men should have enough to stay alive in the group.

For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.