Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Kawasaki Frontale win with a probability of 64.18%. A draw had a probability of 19% and a win for Sagan Tosu had a probability of 16.87%.
The most likely scoreline for a Kawasaki Frontale win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.89%) and 1-0 (7.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.5%), while for a Sagan Tosu win it was 1-2 (4.65%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Kawasaki Frontale would win this match.