Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Kashiwa Reysol win with a probability of 39.69%. A win for Kyoto Sanga had a probability of 32.72% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Kashiwa Reysol win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.27%) and 2-0 (7.34%). The likeliest Kyoto Sanga win was 0-1 (10.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.02%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13% likelihood.