Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerezo Osaka win with a probability of 46.92%. A win for Kashiwa Reysol had a probability of 27.17% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerezo Osaka win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.19%) and 2-0 (8.59%). The likeliest Kashiwa Reysol win was 0-1 (8.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.31%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Cerezo Osaka in this match.