Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Maccabi Tel Aviv win with a probability of 64.16%. A draw had a probability of 21% and a win for Hapoel Tel Aviv had a probability of 14.88%.
The most likely scoreline for a Maccabi Tel Aviv win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.93%) and 2-1 (9.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.97%), while for a Hapoel Tel Aviv win it was 0-1 (5.08%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Maccabi Tel Aviv would win this match.