Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hapoel Be'er Sheva win with a probability of 38.23%. A win for Maccabi Petah Tikva had a probability of 33.38% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hapoel Be'er Sheva win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.92%) and 0-2 (7.22%). The likeliest Maccabi Petah Tikva win was 1-0 (11.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.25%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hapoel Be'er Sheva would win this match.