Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hapoel Jerusalem win with a probability of 47.53%. A draw had a probability of 27.7% and a win for Maccabi Petah Tikva had a probability of 24.72%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hapoel Jerusalem win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.69%) and 2-1 (8.67%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.77%), while for a Maccabi Petah Tikva win it was 0-1 (9.42%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hapoel Jerusalem would win this match.