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Iran national football team
World Cup Qualifying - Asia | Third Round
Mar 29, 2022 at 12.30pm UK
Azadi Stadium, Tehran
Lebanon national football team

Iran
2 - 0
Lebanon

Azmoun (35'), Jahanbakhsh (72')
Ezatolahi (14')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Kadouh (31'), Haidar (41')

Preview: Iran vs. Lebanon - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's World Cup Qualifying - Asia clash between Iran and Lebanon, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Lebanon and Iran close out their 2022 FIFA World Cup qualifying campaigns with a meeting at the Imam Reza Stadium in Mashhad on Tuesday.

Both teams have little to play for heading into the final round of matches, with their respective fates as regards qualification already all but sealed.


Match preview

Iran's Saman Ghoddos and Hossein Kanani celebrate after qualifying for the World Cup on January 27, 2022© Reuters

With the sides already guaranteed a place in November's World Cup, Iran fell to a 2-0 defeat against South Korea at the Seoul World Cup International Stadium on Thursday.

Goals in either half from Son Heung-min and Kim Young-Gwon saw Dragan Skocic's men come away empty-handed following a toothless display in the Korean capital.

As a result, the Lions of Persia have dropped to second place in Group A of the Asian qualifiers, one point adrift of current leaders South Korea.

Next up is a clash versus an opposing outfit still looking for their first win in this fixture off the back of six consecutive losses dating back to 2000.

Unbeaten in home matches in over three years, Tuesday's hosts are huge favourites to emerge victorious and cap off what has been a successful qualifying journey.

Lebanon coach Ivan Hasek during a press conference after the match on February 1, 2022© Reuters

Lebanon were on the receiving end of a 3-0 thrashing against Syria when the teams faced off at the Saida Municipal on Thursday.

First-half goals from Alaa Al-Dali, Mardik Mardikian and Mohammed Al-Marmour put Ivan Hasek's men to the sword.

The Cedars are three points shy of the United Arab Emirates in the race for a play-off spot and would need results elsewhere to go their way if they are to reach the next stage in June.

Having scored the joint-fewest goals in the group, Tuesday's visitors will need to get going at the attacking end to salvage their already faint hopes of a World Cup place.

Iran World Cup Qualifying - Asia form:
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • L

Lebanon World Cup Qualifying - Asia form:
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • D
  • L

Lebanon form (all competitions):
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • D
  • L



Team News

Shoja Khalilzadeh was hauled off in the first half of Iran's defeat to South Korea last time out, making him a doubt for this one.

Aref Gholami came on for Khalilzadeh in the aforementioned game and is expected to come into the starting XI should the latter be deemed unfit to participate.

The attacking trio of Alireza Jahanbakhsh, Saman Ghoddos and Mehdi Taremi remain unavailable having tested positive for coronavirus.

Lebanon's Abbas Assi had to come off with a minor injury on the stroke of half time in his country's most recent involvement, and the 26-year-old could miss Tuesday's contest.

Iran possible starting lineup:
Abezadeh; Gholami, Kanaani, Hosseini, Mohammadi; Gholizadeh, Hajsafi, Noorafkan, Nourollahi, Amiri; Azmoun

Lebanon possible starting lineup:
Matar; Sabra, Al Zein, Oumari, El Zein; Ayoub, Dhaini, Haydar; Matar, Assi, Kdouh


SM words green background

We say: Iran 2-0 Lebanon

Iran have several key players missing at the top end of the pitch but should still have enough to see off the threat of Lebanon. We are backing the hosts to claim all three points come the final whistle.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a home win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home Win:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Iran win with a probability of 61.21%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Lebanon had a probability of 16.14%.

The most likely scoreline for a Iran win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.08%) and 2-1 (9.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.69%), while for a Lebanon win it was 0-1 (5.94%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Iran in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Iran.


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Game History

How you voted: Iran vs Lebanon

Iran
78.0%
Draw
16.0%
Lebanon
6.0%
50
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