Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vanuatu win with a probability of 49.88%. A win for Fiji had a probability of 27.85% and a draw had a probability of 22.21%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vanuatu win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.31%) and 2-0 (6.31%). The likeliest Fiji win was 1-2 (6.21%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.29%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood.