Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Russia win with a probability of 44.68%. A win for Tajikistan had a probability of 31.42% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Russia win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.09%) and 0-2 (6.73%). The likeliest Tajikistan win was 2-1 (7.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood.