Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lebanon win with a probability of 71.26%. A draw had a probability of 18.3% and a win for East Timor had a probability of 10.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lebanon win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.9%) and 3-0 (9.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.66%), while for a East Timor win it was 0-1 (4.06%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lebanon would win this match.