Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chinese Taipei win with a probability of 49.77%. A win for East Timor had a probability of 27.54% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chinese Taipei win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.7%) and 2-0 (7.13%). The likeliest East Timor win was 1-2 (6.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.22%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chinese Taipei would win this match.