Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Madagascar win with a probability of 46.4%. A win for Kyrgyzstan had a probability of 28.9% and a draw had a probability of 24.75%.
The most likely scoreline for a Madagascar win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.96%) and 0-2 (7.85%). The likeliest Kyrgyzstan win was 1-0 (7.18%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.3%).