Argentinian giants Independiente are looking to overturn a one-goal deficit when they face Brazilian outfit Santos in the second leg of their Copa Sudamericana last-16 tie on Thursday.
The visitors take a narrow 1-0 advantage to Buenos Aires, knowing that a draw would be enough to see them reach the quarter-finals for the first time in 17 years.
Match preview
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After nearly eight weeks away from competitive football, Independiente showed signs of rustiness in the first leg as they were unable to pose a threat to Santos's backline.
El Rojo enjoyed a successful group-stage campaign in the Copa Sudamericana, finishing top of Group B after winning four and drawing two of their six matches. However, they are now at risk of failing to progress to the last eight of a major tournament for the first time since 2016.
Since last week's first leg, Independiente played out a goalless draw at home against Argentinos Juniors in the Argentine Clausura on Monday, which means they have now failed to score in each of their last three matches.
A lengthy mid-season delay seems to have slightly derailed Julio Falcioni's men but the 65-year-old head coach should not be too concerned heading into Thursday's game as a one-goal deficit is still very much within their reach.
Independiente have won all three of their home matches in this year's Copa Sudamericana, and they will need another win, scoring at least two goals, if they wish to progress.
Santos entered the Copa Sudamericana knockout stages after enduring a disappointing Copa Libertadores group-stage campaign, losing four of their six matches and finishing third in Group C.
Unlike Independiente, though, a 13-game domestic fixture schedule since then has kept them occupied, with their home form evidently the biggest positive to take away from this season so far.
Kaio Jorge's 69th-minute strike in last week's first leg helped Santos extended their impressive unbeaten home run to 11 matches. The Alvinegro have also kept nine clean sheets during this period, conceding only twice.
In stark contrast, however, Fernando Diniz's men have struggled on the road, winning only three of their last 26 games across all competitions in 2021.
Their most recent match was also away from home, though a 2-2 draw against high-flying Bragantino in the Brasileiro can be considered a good result.
Santos have featured more predominantly in the Copa Libertadores – winning it three times and reaching the final last year – but they have only ever advanced to the quarter-finals of South America's second-most prestigious competition twice in their history, back in 2003 and 2004.
Securing at least a draw on Thursday, however, would be enough to see them reach the last eight, keeping alive their hopes of lifting their first major continental title since 2011.
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Team News
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Independiente midfielder Carlos Benavidez and defender Ezequiel Munoz both remain on the treatment table with long-term knee injuries, though the latter could be back in training by the end of this month.
Despite losing the first leg, Falcioni could be tempted to name the same starting lineup, though at least one change in midfield is expected on Thursday.
The most likely to drop out is attacking midfielder Andres Roa, with either Lucas Gonzalez or Alan Sonora coming in as his replacement.
Forwards Silvio Romero and Jonathan Herrera will be fighting for a place in the first XI, but as Romero has started each of the last four games, he is expected to start again.
As for Santos, Sandry, Jobson and Rafael Longuine are all ruled out with ruptured knee ligament injuries, while John is also unavailable with a sprained ankle.
Either Para or Madson, who have both played at least 20 times this season, are likely to start at right-back, while the central-defensive partnership between Luiz Felipe and 17-year-old Kaiky Fernandes is set to remain intact.
Talented forward Jorge is likely to lead the line up front, with Marcos Guilherme and Marinho providing support from the wings.
Independiente possible starting lineup:
Sosa; Bustos, Barreto, Insaurralde, Rodriguez; Blanco, L. Romero, Sonora; Palacios, S. Romero, Velasco
Santos possible starting lineup:
Paulo; Para, Felipe, Kaiky, Moraes; Camacho, Mota; Marinho, Pirani, Guilherme; Jorge
We say: Independiente 1-1 Santos (1-2 on aggregate)
Santos have struggled away from home this year but if they can score on Thursday, it will give Independiente a small mountain to climb as they will then need three goals to progress.
With little to separate the two teams, a score draw could be on the cards, which would see the visitors edge into the quarter-finals.
Top tip
Oliver Thomas
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente win with a probability of 46.13%. A win for Santos had a probability of 29.77% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.72%) and 2-0 (7.23%). The likeliest Santos win was 1-2 (7.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.22%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood.
