Two teams searching for their first win of the new Major League Soccer regular season will face each other on Saturday as the Houston Dynamo host the Vancouver Whitecaps at PNC Stadium.
Neither side have found the back of the net thus far, as Orange Crush dropped a 1-0 decision to Sporting Kansas City last week, while The Caps played to a 0-0 draw in their home opener versus New York City FC.
Match preview
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The Dynamo captured the MLS headlines with their major signing just over a week ago, but in the meantime, there is still plenty of work to do in terms of improving this team before the arrival of Hector Herrera in July.
That move may prove to be an inspiring one, which could re-engage the Houston faithful with their team, however based on what we have seen from them in their first two games, it will take a lot more than that to turn this program around.
El Naranja have picked up where they left off in 2021, without a goal in their opening two matches this year after failing to score in their final two regular-season affairs in the previous campaign.
Last year under Tab Ramos, the Dynamo conceded multiple goals in 18 MLS encounters, and judging from what this group have shown so far in 2022, their new boss, Paulo Nagamura appears intent on making sure that his players are not embarrassed like many of them were in several games last season.
While they have only generated five shots on target combined in their two games, this team have limited the damage in their penalty area, with some vital interceptions in the final third.
Orange Crush were the only team in the league who failed to win a road encounter last season however their form at home has not been much better, winning one of their previous five regular-season fixtures played in Southeast Texas, scoring in only one of those encounters.
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After a disastrous opening match defeat in Columbus (4-0), Vanni Sartini and the Whitecaps aimed to buckle down defensively against the reigning MLS Cup champions.
Following their draw versus New York, Sartini noted how pleased he was with the poise that his backline showed against a dangerous Pigeons side as The Caps' did a much better job at maintaining their shape, while also looking fairly compact defensively.
Losing the ball seems to be a recurring theme for Vancouver in the early stages of this campaign, as they only had 29% possession versus New York and were outshot 4-1 in terms of efforts on target, although their giveaways this past weekend were not in the same dangerous areas that we saw in their opener.
A year ago, this team struggled to maintain their composure in the late stages of matches, and so far in 2022, it has been the opposite story as they appear nervous and uneasy from the opening whistle.
Dating back to last year and including the playoffs, The Caps are winless in four successive road encounters, claiming victory in a mere two fixtures away from home in 2021.
Even though they have yet to score, Vancouver have shown to be a speedy and dangerous side on the counter, who might just be missing a little bit of quality and continuity at the moment.
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Team News
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While the Dynamo patiently await the arrival of Herrera, they will have to make do with what they currently have at their disposal and last Saturday, their substitutes were perhaps their most creative players as Darwin Quintero had a great chance that just missed in the 78th minute, and Adalberto Carrasquilla made an excellent feed to Tyler Pasher four minutes later, forcing a save from Tim Melia.
Griffin Dorsey is the only injury concern for Houston as he has an issue with his left leg and was replaced on defence by Zarek Valentin last week, while Steve Clark made four saves in goal versus KC to keep that match close.
The Dynamo made a deal this week, trading Derrick Jones to Charlotte FC along with $50,000 in General Allocation Money (GAM), in exchange for $250,000 GAM, plus a 20% future transfer fee.
Zeca made his first appearance for Orange Crush last weekend, as the former Santos fullback replaced Valentin in the 86th minute, while Thorleifur Ulfarsson came on for Sebastian Ferreira to play the final 14 minutes plus stoppage time a week ago, collecting his first cap with the club.
The leading goalscorer for the Caps a season ago, Brian White, made his first appearance of the year last week, coming on as a second-half substitute versus NYCFC, replacing Deiber Caicedo, while Lucas Cavallini had a solid match in attack before being taken off in favour of Javain Brown with less than 20 minutes to play.
Last week, the club re-signed striker Tosaint Ricketts to a one-year deal with an option for 2023, while Caio Alexandre missed another game with a left foot issue, Erik Godoy sat out because of tightness in his left calf and Jake Nerwinski missed the match after being sent off against the Crew.
There were plenty of questions surrounding the Whitecaps in goal heading into this campaign after trading Maxime Crepeau to Los Angeles FC, but Thomas Hasal answered a lot of those questions on Saturday as he was brilliant, stopping all four shots that he faced, including a big one in the 89th minute off a nice redirection from Thiago Andrade.
Houston Dynamo possible starting lineup:
Clark; Lundqvist, Steres, Parker, Zeca; Carrasquilla, Vera, Ceren, Pasher; Ferreira, Baird
Vancouver Whitecaps possible starting lineup:
Hasal; Blackmon, Vesselinovic, Nerwinski; Brown, Teibert, Owusu, Dajome; Gauld; Cavallini, White
We say: Houston Dynamo 0-1 Vancouver Whitecaps
This contest will feature two of seven MLS sides who have yet to find the back of the net in 2022, and it could be another conservative match with both squads looking tentative in the early stages of this campaign.
For Houston, the arrival of Herrera cannot come soon enough, and while the Caps have not beaten the Dynamo on the road since 2018, they have shown more attacking intent and more chemistry than Orange Crush, so we expect that will be enough to earn them three points.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Houston Dynamo win with a probability of 53.07%. A draw had a probability of 24.7% and a win for Vancouver Whitecaps had a probability of 22.22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Houston Dynamo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.96%) and 2-1 (9.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.73%), while for a Vancouver Whitecaps win it was 0-1 (7.2%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Houston Dynamo would win this match.
