Rooted to the bottom of the Western Conference, a stuttering San Jose Earthquakes outfit will look for their first win of the season when they visit Houston Dynamo this weekend.
The hosts are eyeing up a playoff berth come the end of the campaign and will be confident of piling the pressure onto the division's lowest-ranked side.
Match preview
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After an abysmal start to the campaign, the Earthquakes need to find form quickly, or it could be a difficult season for the side from San Jose.
Winless from their opening five outings in the league, not only do San Jose boast the worst points tally in the Western Conference, but they have also shipped the most goals.
Conceding 11 times so far, defensive instability has cost San Jose dearly, having performed relatively well at the opposite end of the field.
Only one team below fourth in the table have netted more than 14th-placed San Jose, who may have picked up more points if it was not for their leaky backline.
One of the sides to have scored the same amount of goals this season are Houston Dynamo, who unlike their opponents this weekend have defended valiantly.
Shipping just four goals up to now, the Dynamo currently occupy one of the seven playoff spots in the Western Conference and will be hoping to maintain the pressure on the top teams.
Unbeaten in their last three, wins against Inter Miami and Vancouver Whitecaps have seen the Houston-based outfit rocket up the table.
However, despite their shrewd defensive performances, the Dynamo are yet to keep a clean sheet since opening night and will be looking to end a four-game run without a shutout this weekend.
While they may not achieve a clean sheet, history suggests that Houston are likely to take home a victory, having won three of the last five meetings.
In fact, San Jose's only victory in this fixture since September 2019 came all the way back in June 2019, with the visitors looking to replicate the 2-0 win this weekend.
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Team News
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As if bringing up the rear of the Western Conference has not been tough enough for San Jose already this season, a trio of injuries to first-team regulars is providing a problem of its own.
Nathan Cardoso is struggling with a knee injury and is not expected to return until mid-April, with Shea Salinas experiencing the same problem
Midfielder George Asomani is set to miss the match, with a hip injury likely to keep him on the sidelines for at least another week.
Unlike their opponents, the hosts do not have injury concerns to contend with and can enjoy a full squad for the weekend clash.
Houston will once again be looking to Fafa Picault for the goals, after the 31-year-old netted twice in last weekend's 3-1 win over Inter Miami.
Houston Dynamo possible starting lineup:
Clark; Dorsey, Bartlow, Hadebe, Lundqvist; Quintero, Vera, Rodriguez; Baird, Ferrerira, Picault
San Jose Earthquakes possible starting lineup:
Marcinkowski; Marie, Beason, Calvo, Lopez; Yueill, Gregus; Espinoza, Monteiro, Cowell; Ebobisse
We say: Houston Dynamo 2-0 San Jose Earthquakes
Battling to climb up the table, San Jose look set for a long and arduous campaign in MLS.
On the other hand, Houston have shown signs of positivity so far and it could be another profitable afternoon for the Dynamo.
Top tip
Amos Murphy
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Houston Dynamo win with a probability of 46.48%. A win for San Jose Earthquakes had a probability of 27.65% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Houston Dynamo win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.18%) and 2-0 (8.43%). The likeliest San Jose Earthquakes win was 0-1 (8.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.29%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Houston Dynamo would win this match.
