HJK Helsinki and Neftchi Baku head into the second leg of their Europa League third qualifying round tie locked at 2-2 on aggregate.
Whoever prevails from this encounter will set up a clash with Turkish giants Fenerbahce in the playoff round.
Match preview
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You have to go back to the 2014-15 campaign for the last time that HJK Helsinki qualified for the main stages of a European competition, producing a respectable effort in the Europa League as they finished third in their group.
Meanwhile, Neftchi Baku's most notable achievement over the past decade is reaching the same stage during 2012-13, claiming three points from fixtures against Inter Milan, Rubin Kazan and Partizan Belgrade.
However, with the creation of the UEFA Conference League, these two teams effectively have two shots at extending their European season through to Christmas.
This tie is finely poised at the halfway point after Neftchi Baku found an equaliser 10 minutes from time in the reverse clash in Azerbaijan.
HJK had required just six second-half minutes to overturn an earlier deficit, but Emin Mahmudov scored a potentially important goal shortly before the full-time whistle.
Upon reflection, both teams will be relatively content with the outcome of the first leg, particularly HJK who have been playing regularly for a number of months.
On the flip side, Neftchi have been limited to games on the continent with Thursday's match representing just their sixth outing after double-headers with Dinamo Tbilisi and Olympiacos.
The positives could be taken from pushing the latter of those opponents over two legs, likewise with HJK who tested a Malmo outfit which defeated Rangers last week.
While Fenerbahce await the winners of this contest, whoever fails to progress will face a Conference League tie with either Mura or Zalgiris.
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Team News
With progression through to the next round the priority of both clubs, expect each starting lineup to be similar to last week.
However, Neftchi Baku may be forced into one alteration with goalkeeper Agil Mammadov being replaced during the early stages of the first leg.
The selection of Kamran Ibrahimov could prove to be the only change with Samir Abbasov sticking with the outfield players which impressed in Finland.
Riku Riski could be recalled to the first XI, with HJK improving once he had replaced David Browne during the early stages of the second half.
HJK Helsinki possible starting lineup:
Tannander; Moren, Tenho, O'Shaughnessy, Murillo; R.Riski, Lingman, Jair, Saksela; Riski, Valencic
Neftchi Baku possible starting lineup:
Ibrahimov; Harramiz, Mbodj, Stankovic, Basque; Nacafov, Mahmudov, Kane, Lawal; Meza Colli, Bougrine
We say: HJK Helsinki 2-1 Neftchi Baku (4-3 to Helsinki on aggregate)
Despite their impressive record over the past few months, HJK Helsinki has not necessarily been convincing in their recent games.
Nevertheless, we are predicting a narrow win for the Finns, moving them a step closer to building on the national team's progression over the past 18 months.
Top tip
Darren Plant
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a HJK Helsinki win with a probability of 47.76%. A win for Neftchi Baku had a probability of 27.6% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a HJK Helsinki win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.42%) and 2-0 (8.06%). The likeliest Neftchi Baku win was 0-1 (7.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.66%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that HJK Helsinki would win this match.
