Gremio have an opportunity to stop a six-game losing streak away from home and with a victory on Saturday from Estadio Raimundo Sampaio when they face America Mineiro in match #31 for them in the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A.
Immortal Tricolor are seven points behind Bahia and a place in the top flight next year, while Mineiro outlasted a resilient Sport Recife team with a 3-2 victory.
Match preview
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In their first season in the Brazilian top flight since 2018, America have put together several solid performances, and on Wednesday, they had their second-best offensive outing of 2021, with three goals on six targeted efforts.
Since the early stages of this campaign, this team have been under the radar for the most part, winning no more than two consecutive league games, but failing to lose successive fixtures since dropping a 1-0 decision to Recife in July.
To their credit, Coelho have recovered nicely from a difficult start to the season, going winless in their opening seven league games and failing to score in their first three.
Lisca, who helped them earn a promotion from Serie B in 2020, was sacked in the middle of June after going winless in seven matches in all competitions.
Under the guidance of Marquinhos Santos since October, we have seen a lot more consistency in their play, winning three of their four contests with the 42-year-old at the helm.
Earlier this week, they went back to a 4-1-4-1 system which was not particularly effective as Lucas Kal was a little slow coming back to help the defence on Wednesday, allowing too many through balls into dangerous areas, resulting in two second-half goals for Recife.
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They still have a long way to go to rescue themselves from relegation, but Vagner Mancini, who managed America Mineiro earlier this year, had to be encouraged by the effort that his Gremio players gave at home to Flu on Tuesday, winning 1-0 and ending a four-match losing run.
The team from Porto Alegre were buzzing all around the Fluminense side of the field, firing 25 shots before finding the decisive breakthrough.
Going up against a side who have not beaten them in a competitive fixture since 2001 should give Gremio a big psychological boost heading this match.
Consistency has been a real issue for this club throughout the year, putting together only two winning streaks domestically this season, which lasted for two games on each occasion.
This is a side who have only finished outside of the top five in the league twice since 2012, so to see them in 19th place this late in the year is something that nobody could have seen coming.
Throughout their history, they have been able to remain successful by developing a lot of talent in their Academy ranks, including Arthur, Pepe and Everton, to name a few, but it seems as though the talent pool has dried up in 2021.
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Team News
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On Wednesday, Juninho Valoura was the hero for America, scoring the winner in the 83rd minute, while Ademir and Ale tallied their seventh and second goals of the season, respectively.
Bruno Nazario and Fabricio Daniel missed their match with Recife due to yellow card suspensions and Ale will not be eligible to play after he picked up a caution late in the first half of their game this week.
In their first meeting with Gremio this year Felipe Azevedo got the equalising goal for his side, and he is second on the team in that category this season with four up to this point.
Diego Souza scored the winner for Gremio on Tuesday, his fifth of the campaign, moving him past Miguel Borja into first for Rei de Copas in 2021, while Mateus Sarara picked up his first assist in league play.
We saw several new faces in the starting 11 for this side versus Flu, compared to the match against Internacional as Brenno replaced Gabriel Chapeco in goal, Vanderson and Diogo Barbosa were inserted on defence rather than the suspended Bruno Cortez and Rafinha, while Elias Manoel, Jaminton Campaz, Alisson and Souza started over Thiago Santos, Mathias Villasanti, Miguel Borja and Douglas Costa.
In their match against America earlier this year, Guilherme Guedes put his side in front after only seven minutes in a game that ended 1-1, the only goal that Guedes has scored this season for Gremio.
America Mineiro possible starting lineup:
Cavichioli; Marlon, Eduardo, Ruschel, Patric; Kal, Juninho, Ale, Ze Ricardo, Ademir; Zarate
Gremio possible starting lineup:
Brenno; Vanderson, Geromel, Kannemann, Rafinha; Silva, Ferreira; Darlan, Campaz, Churin; Souza
We say: America Mineiro 1-0 Gremio
America have had a lot more structure to their game in recent weeks, and they have been able to hang around in plenty of matches thanks to their patience and waiting for their opponents to make a move.
Gremio cannot seem to play strong for a long stretch while also being incredibly poor away from home so expect to see them extend their losing run on the road to seven games this weekend.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a America Mineiro win with a probability of 44.7%. A draw had a probability of 28.6% and a win for Gremio had a probability of 26.69%.
The most likely scoreline for an America Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.1%) and 2-1 (8.32%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.06%), while for a Gremio win it was 0-1 (10.25%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that America Mineiro would win this match.
